The art of value calling river raises!
The art of value calling river raises!
Dear Mr Street,
First lets do the math! The math the math always the math! (Pascal)
First what are our pot odds on this call? Right 10 to 1.
3 small pre-flop, 3 small flop, 3 big turn, and 4 river, including the river raise. Equals 10.
Next what do we know about this opponent? “He is a solid player” Solid players check raise. Right! But also don’t solid players bluff raise? Well Yes. And don’t solid players occasionally slow play? Yes. And won’t solid players raise with two pair which aren’t the top two?
Next were there any pre-river betting patterns that would help us understand our opponent hand? Yes, but those patterns tends to make us think that he didn’t he didn’t hit a straight on the river.
To do so he would have had to have passed up the opportunity to bet an open-ended straight draw on the flop.
Most solid players are going to put in a bet here, in a 3-way hand. If they take the hand here great. If not they have the redraw with a 33% fill rate.
Next when do solid players put in river bluff bets? When a scare card hits on the river! Did a scare card hit? Yes it did.
Next are there any other hands a solid player could have check raised with. Yes! A slow played Jack Ten, or a Jack six. or a Suited Jack weak kicker 7. Or a big pair.
These hands may not be likely BUT they are all possible.
During your lifetime how often does this call have to work to be profitable?
Let’s see.
1 Call miss!
2. Call miss
3. Call miss
4. Call miss
5. Call miss
6. Call miss
7. Call miss
8. Call miss
9 Call HIT! WE HAVE A WINNER!!!!! And with these pot odds it more than pays for all of the misses.
If you hit only this often, you are going to make a profit in your lifetime. And trust me, top two pair will be good more than one in ten times.
I am still mad about a pot I missed at the Mirage Sunday night. It was a $275 dollar pot. But the table was on tilt.
I had missed my flush draw and was left with a pair of 8s. The gun had been totally quiet, just calling, until an unrelated 2 hit the river. And then he came out betting. There were 4 over cards to my 8s on the board. And the lady in front of me exclaimed that she would not let the gun get away with bluffing. I threw my 8s. into the muck and the gun showed down a pair of 2s, while our sheriff lady had an unpaired king high hand.
I had already decided to call, until she made her exclamation. Color me stupid!
But our rule is, to call the river when it is a big pot for one bet even with marginal hands. And top two-pair is above marginal.
Thank you for raising this important and interesting topic.
Most sincerely,
Doctavian
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