Re: More Fun With TD 2-7
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I obviously agree. I thought that three good things could happen because of my raise:
1. The trashy draws behind me will have to pay the max to continue with their trashy hands.
2. I felt there was an outside-outside chance that the bettor would break a better 8.
3. Most importantly, if the bettor had 3-bet me, I was going to break my 8.
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So, I'm willing to be convinced on this one; my initial reaction was wrong. (I've been breaking too often lately vs opponents who think their 9 is good.)
Even if all three players are drawing one (and live) on the last round you have a huge edge (50-70%) and obviously want to get in a raise. This nets you between 1-3 BB.
If you are behind an 86 or better, you could have as little as 12% equity drawing, because some of your outs are most likely dead. Knocking out a low-equity hand like button has will not increase your equity much. But there are already 8 BB in the pot when it gets to you, which is worth making a move for. Compare 1 BB in a 9 BB pot (note that you have odds to draw this way) vs. 2 BB in a 10 BB pot (or 12 if SB sticks around) in the case where you are behind an 86.
Causing a break turns you from a 12% underdog in the first into to a 70% favorite in the second. This difference is worth about 6 BB! So you need only be successful in breaking another hand 1 out of 7 times if these are the only possibilities. (Implied odds from betting on the final round figure in here, too, but I've ignored them.)
Sometimes you will get 3-bet and are probably less than 12% to make your hand, maybe only 8-9% vs. a 76 and another 7 draw. Paying 3 BB in a 12 BB pot here costs you 2BB.
The mix of these cases should be +EV, but I'm having trouble assigning probabilities to each.
What should villian do here with a legitimate hand? I would be tempted to smooth-call with a 76 and bet the last round, but after button cold-calls yet again I think a reraise is called for; the other two players will insulate villian against the possibility of you having a better 7.
Sorry for the length of the reply; I just wanted to work through it myself and get a feel for the numbers here.
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