Some quick numbers using the
ICM
TC Folds 83o, One of the other players wins with a bet on the flop.
2400-3100-2300-400-1800
Gives him 24.0% of the prize pool
TC raises, the other two get it all in, the pot is not chopped.
2100-3100-0-400-4400
TC gets 26.6% of the prize pool.
TC raises, the first opponent pushes, sb and TC fold.
2100-3100-2600-400-1800
TC is worth 22.0%
There are many other factors that I have allowed to offset against each other for now. The other players may fight without our help, so we don't need to waste 300 chips. We may hit a huge flop and triple up, etc etc.
Just showing the starting points, but from here, if TC can trust his reads 45-50% of the time, he can make the play. If he has a better hand, then he can make it more often.
Lori