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well this is based on your numbers being a certain ratio...but most people, when on a very bad streak, will not play 100% and thus will be lower than what they think their ratios are...remember, this is based on ACTUAL ratio, which you never know for sure and can't really approximate very accurately for thousands of sngs...and even then u change your game, etc and your ratios change..
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This is why I was hoping you'd put some uncertainty into the distribution during a single run of 10,000. I made
this post a while ago after thinking about doing something similar to what you've done. Do you think you could put some randomization into the finish distribution, say, chaging it every 10 tournaments selecting from a normal distribution? Make the mean 38%ITM 15% ROI with some set 1/2/3 relative fraction and then build the distribution around that? Nice work so far BTW.
SlimP