[Irieguy]

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How about for 13.5, 12.5, 11.5? That is 37% ITM and 15% ROI for me in the 50's right now.

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Yes, that's a more realistic distribution for a very good player. I'd like to see the ROR/max downswing numbers for this, too.

Interestingly, though, I will say this: I've played thousands of SNGs at just about every level and have never had a losing "block" of more than 500. My long term distributions and ROI are in line with the numbers above. Yet, I'm certain that I've had a bigger downswing than should be possible and I know at least 2 other pros who could say the same thing.

There must be some pretty significant intra-session and inter-session variables contributing to losing stream probabilities. Everybody that I know who plays 1000 or so SNGs a month and beats the piss out of them drops 30+ buy-ins quite regularly.

Similarly, you can "prove" mathematically that a 2BB/100 limit holdem winner should never ever lose more than 400 BBs... but I know of more than 10 players who win at this rate or better and have dropped 500+ BBs on a cooler.

Meh.

Irieguy