[locutus2002]

OK, lets do some back of the envelope math to see where we are at: I am not advocating a push, lets just suppose it.

hero pushes and risks 1930 (villain's remaining chips) to win 620.

Let's start by assuming that villain folds everything but 2pr++ so there are ~40 hands in which villain is 5:1 dog; => EV ~725. So villain needs to fold ~2:1 or ~80 hands to bring hero's total EV to ~1930 (~725 + 2 X 620).

So the question is are there ~80 hands that villain will raise with ATF and fold to a push?


Total - with at least one club
KQ-12 ways 3 ways
AA - 6 ways 3 ways
KK - 6 ways 3 ways
KJ - 8 ways 2 ways
K9 - 8 ways 6 ways
AT - 16 ways 6 ways
AK - 16 ways 6 ways
TJ - 8 ways 2 ways
T9 - 8 ways 2 ways
T7 - 16 ways 6 ways
QT - 12 ways 4 ways
T6* - 16 ways 6 ways (may not open worse than this in EP)
two clubs ~50 ways (double counting some of the hands listed).

so villain needs to raise to T350 with at least any two clubs, and a pair with one club to make 80 hands.

Overall it looks pretty unclear and is not a huge EV+ for hero even if villain will raise with a hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q.
The situation will be affected by villain's willingness to raise some of the more marginal hands. I don't see why hero would want to commit his chips here when he is either way behind with no FE or a little ahead with a lot of FE (assuming villain throws down the marginal hands to a push)

In general the hands against which you are ahead have a greater chance of improving than you do, so hero's situation is not likely to improve at the turn: I don't think hero wants to see any more cards.