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Old 08-02-2005, 02:28 PM
fnord_too fnord_too is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Norfolk, VA
Posts: 672
Default Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)

Well, here's what I probably do:

I call and lead any turn for about 500, which leaves me with about 1900 and puts the pot at about 1900 if he calls.

What could this guy have? There are 4 hands that scare me:
99, QJ, 8T, KT (with KT being the least likey, and both straights probably being suited but not in clubs, QJ probably suited, too).

What other hands might raise here: AQ, KQ, AJ, AT, TT, AA/KK (whiffed pre flop limp reraise), A9s (not clubs) (unlikely but possible), 88 maybe.

I think it is much more likely that you are up against a one pair hand here, maybe with a straight draw like QTs, than anything else. Why would he be raising here with a flush draw? Lots of limpers who may tag along giving him excelent odds, and the possibility of someone behind him having a real hand and pushing him off his draw (while costing him another 10+% of his stack). It sure looks like villain has a vulnerable made hand, and there are not a whole lot of those that beat you.

If you lead for 500 on the turn, you put villain in a very awkward spot*: He can raise 1250 more, giving you ~2.5:1 on his call or he can call leaving the pot at 1900 with 1250 behind, or he can just go away.

I like this line over raising right now because some times he will have you beat right now and some of the times he does the turn will scare him and make him lay down a better hand. (e.g. he has say QJ and the turn comes T or a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] he is going to have a very tough decision.)

If he pushes the turn you may have a tough decision, but you will be getting 2.5:1 so you will probably have to call anything other than a K or 8.

*Awkward assuming he does not have a very strong hand!
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