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Old 08-02-2005, 02:07 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: O8 Tournament Bubble Hand - Analysis Wanted

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1) I probably should've just folded to begin with.

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Mike - Yes.

Chipwise, you're in a tough spot, but you have a ways to wait before you have to post again. Before you have to post again, a couple other people very well might bust out of the tournament. If I'm understanding correctly, the blinds are 600 and 1200, the limits are 1200 and 2400, and you started the hand with 4492. Thus your stack is approximately a bit less than four small bets.

With such a small stack, I'd tend not to limp. I'd wait, hoping for a better starting hand, and a better stiuation (no limpers already). Then I'd come in with a raise.

You never want to dribble your chips away - but that's especially true when you have a small stack in a tournament. Wait, and when you get a decent starting hand, make your move. When you only have the equivalent of about four small bets left in your stack, you'll almost surely be committing all your chips if you get a decent flop.

And here you did get a decent flop for that (crummy) starting hand.

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I had a good but not great high hand with no low potential.

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It's not a good starting hand. I'm not sure where you got the idea it's a good starting hand. Whoever told you it was a good starting hand gave you bad advice.

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1a) I think this may have been a good hand for a blind steal attempt if there hadn't been the one limper in front of me.

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I disagree. You have to expect to possibly get one-on-one with the blind when you make a steal attempt. This is not a good one-on-one hand.

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2) I'm of two minds on my flop play. On the one hand, I did get my money in with the best hand.

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Well... yes, you have flopped bottom set, which is not generally considered a very good flop. It isn't so much that you're possibly facing AAYZ or QQYZ as that you're possibly facing AQYZ, AXYZ or QXYZ. There is the danger of AAYZ or QQYZ, but honestly, that danger, by itself, is semi-remote.

Any flopped set is probably the leader immediately after the flop. If the game was over after the flop. If there was no turn and not river, I'd bet on any flopped set, even bottom set. But there are those two pesky cards yet to come.

You're more likely to be up against AQYZ than AAYZ or QQYZ - and although you're ahead after the flop, there's the danger of the board pairing with aces or queens.

And there's also a possibility of being up against AXYZ or QXYZ. You're way ahead, of course, but there's the danger of another ace or queen plus another X, Y, or Z - and in that case you get beaten by a runner-runner higher full house. An opponent with AXYZ or QXYZ is probably drawing for something else immediately after the flop (at least he/she should be!) - but whatever. And if the board doesn't pair, a straight and/or flush usually is possible.

The end result is flopped bottom sets, unless you can play them fast and greatly narrow the field (and maybe even then) don't fare well.

You did play your hand fast after the flop - and things simply didn't work out for you. It happens. But, at any rate, you did play well after the flop, in my humble opinion.

I think flopped bottom set hands and flopped top and bottom two pairs hands are similar in the way they should be played (or not played). There was a recent thread involving Phat Mack that has some guidelines for playing flopped top and bottom two pairs.... One of the guidelines involved not tending to play flopped top and bottom two pairs when two cards of the flop are of the same suit (as here).

I might (probably would) dump this hand to a bet after this flop in a ring game - and if I did, it would be partly because of the flop having two cards of the same suit (but not my suit). However, since you have a short stack, short-stack-tournament considerations override these guidelines.

At any rate, although I think you should have folded before the flop - I do think you played correctly after the flop.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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