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Old 08-01-2005, 03:44 AM
uuDevil uuDevil is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Remembering P. Tillman
Posts: 246
Default Re: My brain is fried....and apparently empty too

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1. Just as a reminder, for pot odds, If my chances of hitting a winning hand are less than the odds the pot is offering, I am getting the worst of it, and should fold (notw: this is ignoring implied odds). So if I am a 5-1 dog, and the pot is offering 3-1, I should take the express train to the muck pile...and vice versa.

Just clarify that for me, I cannot find any books right now (in the process of moving) so I need an answer please.


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You seem to be clear enough on that.

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2. I still have trouble understanding the concept of reverse implied odds. I find the explanation in TOP is confusing...does anyone have a more simplistic explanation.

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I'll try. Implied odds include extra bets you expect to WIN if you draw out on your opponent. Reverse implied odds include extra bets you expect to LOSE if your opponent has a better hand than you do or draws out on you.

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3. This is more of the general probability and gambling questions. I need help calculating EV. The formula for doing it is escaping me. And then, I need help (examples and etc.) about what a +EV bet is. I only ask this because last night after a game fmy friend offered me a game that he drew any club, out of a fair deck, he wins, and if he doesnt, I win. There are no odds, just straight dollar for dollar. I know that I am a 3-4 favorite, but how does that translate into EV?

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For each possible outcome, multiply the probability of that outcome by the value of the outcome, then add these terms. In your example, there are 2 possible outcomes:

Outcome 1: your friend draws a club. The probability of this outcome is 1/4. The value of this outcome is -$1.

Outcome 2: your friend draws some other suit. The probability of this outcome is 3/4. The value of this outcome to you is +$1.

So EV= (1/4)(-1)+(3/4)(1)=1/2. You will win $.5 per bet, on average.

Another way of looking at it: you are a 3-1 favorite (not sure why you say 3-4), so on average, 3 times you win $1, and 1 time you lose $1. This means you win 3($1)+1(-$1)=$2 every 4 bets, or $.5 per bet, as before.

Try this webpage for further explanation and examples:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
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