Strange Pot - Checkraise that flop
This was a very enjoyable article on the dynamics of live play.
I don't see the flop decision quite the way Nate does. I think checkraising is absolutely mandatory. It's true as he observes that a checkraise cannot protect him from a good flush draw. But what about a bad flush draw? If you can isolate on Ed there is a very good chance that life will go on after the fourth spade hits because he didn't happen to get one.
You don't want to give the pro a cheap card with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He has twelve outs versus you counting the backdoor straight. But he will be hard-pressed to call if you confront him with two bets. He's making a gigantic Sklansky mistake by folding the last spade but how could he know?
Then there is Daniel with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. That's twelve outs and another huge Sklansky mistake. By your description he sounds like exactly the sort of player who will probably fold for two bets but call one.
That Ed might make a strange 3-bet is not a reason for concern. It's going to be hard to get away from this hand unless a third player shows strength. Ed should feel free to put in as much action with worse hands as he wants [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. Furthermore, I'm sure Ed's tendencies are not lost on the pro or probably even Daniel. The last thing they want to do is put a loose call in between you and Ed. They know full well this could come back for two more bets.
The best thing about the flop checkraise is you are likely to have the best hand. This is a situation where it is worth a sacrifice to protect your hand but you are probably getting value on this raise. At least it's close.
Principle: Evaluating outs on a monotone flop is extremely difficult. Large Sklansky errors in both directions occur when players are confronted with pressure. Sometimes players sensibly call multiple bets to draw dead. Othertimes obvious folds are actually huge live draws or even the best made hand.
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