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Old 07-31-2005, 02:24 AM
arch12 arch12 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
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Default Re: TPTK and Gettin Donk bet

I personally feel this is a fold. I think that are just too many factors pointing to folding this hand, including:
-Your opponent is passive (granted the sample size is quite small and may be misleading)
-The small pot size
-Two draws have been completed on the turn

I did a little analysis into his possible hands and came up with the following:
Opponent’s possible holdings:
50% - straight or flush
20% - two pair
20% - weaker ace/smaller pair
10% - bluff

These estimates led me to conclude the following:
Pot size: 4.70BB
~8 outs when he has 2 pair(very generous estimate)– 4.7:1 x 20% = ~3.5% = ~29:1
~3.5% +10% (bluff) = 13.5% = ~6.5:1 is required to call down profitably
EDIT: it actually has to be a little higher than this, as I didn't account for the times you are winning and get outdrawn on the river.

The above analysis points clearly to folding. While the % are only my estimates based on my experiences, I feel it was quite a fair assessment. Even if you dispute these estimates, you should make the play according to his most likely holdings, and in my opinion that is a fold. I think it’s hard for anyone to dispute that your opponent won't have a straight, flush or aces up at least 50% of the time. In the end, you only have a pair on a highly coordinated board. *If my analysis is wrong in any way please feel free to let me know.
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