[rikz]

Thank you for your input on this hand. My thoughts at the time echoed your responses to my question about call or fold. So, I don't feel so bad about calling in this situation. I've made this type of call before at PP 25NL and I'm usually ahead.

But, here's an interesting question -

How big do the stacks and villains check/push need to be for me to fold AA here to a check raise?

With $8.10 in the pot, and my $6 continuation bet, that makes a pot of $14.10.

Let me try the math, in the spirit of fim's recent math postings and the like.

Estimated Probability = 20% for Villian having a Flush draw (using Ac Kc for example).
EV=.627
As Ah 621 62.73 369 37.27 0 0.00 0.627
Ac Kc 369 37.27 621 62.73 0 0.00 0.373

Est. Prob. = 10% for Villian having a TPTK (using Ad Td for example).
EV=.914
As Ah 905 91.41 85 8.59 0 0.00 0.914
Ad Td 85 8.59 905 91.41 0 0.00 0.086

Est. Prob. = 50% for Villain having a Set (using TT for example).
EV=.086
As Ah 85 8.59 905 91.41 0 0.00 0.086
Ts Th 905 91.41 85 8.59 0 0.00 0.914

Est. Prob. = 20% for Villain having an Overpair under AA (using JJ for example).
EV=.872
As Ah 863 87.17 127 12.83 0 0.00 0.872
Jc Jh 127 12.83 863 87.17 0 0.00 0.128

I rounded all EVs off to nearest tenth for simplicity.

.2*.6 + .1*.9 + .5*.1 + .2*.9 =
.12 + .09 + .05 + .18 = .44 approx. total EV

Odds of winning based on .44 EV = 1 : (1-.44)/.44 = 1:1.27 or about 1:1.3

Pot odds to call in order to make a neutral EV would 1.3:1. That means with a pot of $14.10, I can call an all-in from Villain up to 1.3*14.10 = $18.33 over the $6 continuation bet, which would be $24.33 to go.

EDIT: This doesn't seem right? How do I calculate this breakeven point. I'm missing something here, aren't I?

Villain made the all-in $23.75 to go when he check raised all in. So, given these assumptions, I should call. But, he almost had enough money to make this call -EV? I'm messing something up here at the end, because this doesn't seem right. Anybody?