[Fuchida]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

This is wrong.

There is $100 in the pot, and on the turn it is heads up. We have the best hand, our opponent is on a flush draw that will come in less than 20% of the time. If the hand goes to showdown with no further betting, our EV is $80, opponent's is $20.

We bet $10. Opponent is getting 11:1 odds on his call. He only needs roughly 4:1, so he calls. As he should. Does this mean our bet is wrong? NO! We're still winning this 80% of the time. That means of the $20 that just went into the pot (our bet and his call), $16 of it belongs to us. The call is +EV for the flush draw because of the size of the pot, but it's MORE +EV for us.

Also, let's say you put your opponent on a flush draw in that same pot. We bet $10, he calls. The third of a suit comes on the river. We check, he bets $10. We are getting 13:1 to call. That means that we only have to have the best hand less than 8% of the time for the call to be +EV. Can you say with 92% certainty that he was on a flush draw? But in no-limit, he can bluff you off the pot much more easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG! I am starting to understand why some people like limit if this is how they think.

$100 in the pot. If you bet $10 in the turn and he calls, then 20% of the time he will lose $10 and 80% of the time he will win $120. On average his call has a +EV of $16 (120 - 4x10)/5. Therefore you have negative EV. I hope you don't think you both have +EV.

I agree that in limit you still have to bet because even bad odds are better than infinite odds. You are effectively reducing the size of your negative EV. However, in NL, you can control the bet and give yourself a +EV situation regardless of the drawing player's actions.

[/ QUOTE ]

...are... are you serious? A little piece of me just died inside reading this.

There's $100 in the pot. He has a flush draw, which means he will LOSE 80% of the time. Not win. WE are making the $16 on the bet and call.

Yes, two people can have positive EV. Because of money already in the pot.

Just... wow. Wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can people really be this dim? Yes, you get $10 if he calls and doesn't make his draw but you lose $110 if he does make it. I can see that a career in professional poker was a +EV move if people are really this bad at math.

OK, last time - with all the math

100 in the pot plus 10 from you

If he folds, you get $110 on average

If he calls, you get 120 80% of the time and nothing 20% of the time. Therefore on average you get (120x4)/5 = $96

Therefore, if he calls, you lose $14.

How can this not be any clearer???

Please explain, with the supporting math rather than the usual, 'just because it is', how you gain money if he calls?

[/ QUOTE ]

You know you throw around a lot of insults for someone who doesn't seem to know WTF they are talking about.

With $100 in the pot, a better has +ev of $110 if opponent folds to his $10 bet.
On the other hand, better has a +ev of $96 if opponent calls his $10 bet. He/she has a positive +ev either way, expected value doesn't become a negative if the call is made; the better just has a lower +ev he is called.

Caller's ev on a fold is 0.
Caller, on the other hand, wins $120 20% of the time and $0 the other 80% for a +ev ON THAT CALL of $24.

96:24, the ratio of expected values, is the odds of the caller hitting his draw (4:1).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you may find we are violently agreeing. The person I was originally replying to stated that he wanted a call because he would gain from that call. I am trying to point out that you don't want a call. Yes, overall he still has +EV whatever happens but he has negative EV on that call. If the call happens, he will make less on average them if the call doesn't happen. Therefore he doesn't want a call and the call itself is -EV for the made hand. There is no +EV on the call for the made hand.

As you said yourself, a call makes the overall EV less than no call so how can that mean anything but that the call itself is -EV for the made hand?

Lets try a simple question instead. When you make that bet, do you want a call or not?