Re: J8s
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone consider raising this from the button preflop?
[/ QUOTE ]
I think that has no technical merit in terms of cards. It would purely be an exercise in exploiting opponents who fold much too much. Without reads on anyone I don't see how you can go there.
I'm OK with the preflop call against one loose limper and blinds who don't raise a huge amount--typical 5/10 opponents.
The turn decision is difficult without reads and there is a case for all three actions:
1. Fold: This is a bad turn card because it destroyed your outs. BB has gone beyond the point where many players will keep pushing a low pocket or unimproved high cards on this scary board. Plus it always looked like a good board for him compared to your weak jack. If both opponents are decent players then your pot equity does not warrant paying two more for a showdown. Each opponent is individually favored to be ahead and when you are ahead they have a ton of outs. Meanwhile you probably have very few outs.
2. Call: The free showdown play looks good because a 3-bet probably means you are drawing dead, but if the river is bad (e.g. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) you could probably save by calling and folding the river. Also if you call it will be two bets to you on the river a significant amount and that's another chance to save a bet. Finally there is always some risk in raising with no reads. For instance a stop-n-go river bet would be awkward because you won't know what it means.
3. Raise: Has potential to collect extra bets from draws and possibly force out a hand like Ax ahead of the river.
Betting the river was always questionable as I think you are behind too much. Losing your kicker on the river is absolutely the last straw and should end all thoughts of betting.
|