Re: Math problem with QQ?
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If you're going to lead you need to 3bet. If the mouse still calls then you know you're beat and can checkfold unimproved.
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Once the mouse calls on the flop, it's fairly like that he has me beat. It's unlikely that he's limping UTG+1 with 78s so my concerns are 66/99 and Ax hands. I don't want to put 3-bets in on the flop when I'm likely behind. The question is how likely is it that he just has a weak one-pair hand that I can fold with a turn check/raise?
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3betting is more consistent with the hand you are representing. A turn checkraise looks exactly like what you are trying to do (shut out a better hand). I think if you 3bet there is a very good chance he folds an ace. A turn checkraise is also more expensive.
-SmileyEH
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