Re: I have to be ahead.....don\'t I?
Call the river and it's not even close.
Anyone with QQ would have 3-bet preflop so we can likely rule that hand out.
Anyone with a straight flush draw is going to pump that flop when you bet. That didn't happen,
Anyone with a set is going to pump that flop when you bet. That didn't happen.
If CO has any sort of a big hand on the turn, he would have bet. My guess is that CO had the Ac and whatever for a kicker looking for the backdoor runner runners straight/flush draws.
BB hand is definitely to fear after he caps the river, but I think your estimate of only being ahead 13% of the time is too low. I'd put him on JT based on how he played, possibly QJ as well, with small odd chance he did play a straight flush this way. I'm still sticking to my guns with CO having the Ace of clubs.
I think you are ahead here more than 40% of the time at least, and that is also being too conservative of an estimate.
With that estimate, I'd like to go back to my original statemtent to call the river and it's not even close.
Lawrence
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