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Old 07-29-2005, 06:43 AM
AleoMagus AleoMagus is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Victoria BC
Posts: 252
Default Re: Simulation of Floating bankroll needed

Yes, and it is an interesting question.

There is this (quoted from Bozeman in an old thread), though it is not exact calculations:

[ QUOTE ]
The cashing out correction can be dealt with very simply: when your bankroll changes (because of a win, a loss or a cashout), your risk of ruin, from that point, changes. So, if you cash out any excess whenever bankroll is larger than B(r), you will have r probability of going broke after each cashout. Those times your BR falls below B(r) your risk of ruin, calculated at that time, will be larger.

While 1% risk of ruin doesn't sound like much, it can be significant over many opportunities for ruin, since if you play with this RoR always (never less), your risk of going broke sometime will increase linearly (~1%*NumberofSNG's/25). Playing 400 SNG's like this is more dangerous than playing with a bankroll 2/5 as big that you never touch.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good approximation (well, actually, I don't know, but I trust Bozeman's opinion on these kinds of things).

I suppose it's a kind of justice that right after I express my frustration about sim guys not bothering with math, a problem arises that I don't have an immediate and more exact answer to.

I can't imagine this will be too hard to figure out though.

I will say this much. The real answer is that a floating bankroll has a 100% ROR. You will go broke. (It only becomes interesting if we ask this over a given sample size).

Regards
Brad S
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