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Old 07-28-2005, 01:34 AM
bkfizz02 bkfizz02 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 34
Default Re: Is calling this dumb?

Yes, in general, this would be a bad call because you know you will be behind far too often. You're going to need to improve and you won't get there often enough.

I figure that the situation you had was about as GOOD as it gets GIVEN the action you observed. Specifically, bottom set vs TPTK, none of your suit. I guess perhaps if first villain had AQ of clubs, this would improve your hand.

Look at the expected value of your stack if the hand plays out various ways :

(1) You fold
Your stack : $27 (0)
(2) You move in, TPTK calls behind you :
you'd have 30.45% equity in main pot of 74.25 and
45.10% equity in side pot of 6.50

Your stack : 22.61+2.93 = $ 25.54 (-1.46)

(3) You call, and TPTK folds knowing his hand is awful:
you now have 32.1% equity in a pot of 54.85

Your stack : $17.61 (-9.39)

I really think TPTK should be able to fold his hand given 2 reraise all-in in front of him, so you're looking at choosing between (1) and (3) most of the time, given the best reasonable interpretion of the action in front of you.

In hindsight, knowing your opponents cards shows it is an easy fold. In gametime, I think it should be even more clear.

Good luck.
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