[TiltsMcFabulous]

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First I'd like to point out that trying to bluff a VPIP of 70 is just flat out insane. No doubt about it. You can say all you want about "he's been folding rivers", but thats because he's seeing almost all of them, and even horrible players will fold 7high to a river bet.

What you should be paying attention too, and something I didn't see you mention once during this thread, is what would he raise the turn with? Could it be a draw? A PP? Nothing? The turn action greatly defines his holdings, and then you can HONESTLY evaluate the chances of each and whether he's capable of folding any/all of them to a river bet.

The river donk/bet, however, will never work here, even if he has A-high. Its a mentality thing, and when you let him put the last bet in on the turn, he figured that whatever he had was better than what you had, and that river card certainly didn't appear to change anything.

For this to have any chance, you must 3bet the turn and bet any river (be it for bluff of for value). Now your talking about investing 4 BB to try and bluff a player who habitually (by his numbers) HATES to fold. Its just bad poker. Stop trying too hard and force your opponents to make their biggest mistakes more often. The line you took actually encourages your opponent to play better, which should be the last thing you want.

lf

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So what do I do on the river? Check and let him bet me into folding? I am investing 1 BB in an 8 BB pot. If he folds just one time in 8, I am making out alright. How can it not be right to take a stab at this pot when I have a chance of folding him off of an ace or a low PP. I am sure I have a better than 1 in 8 chance of folding him here.

The discussion on here makes me rethink this strategy, but so far the responses have been basically "he calls too much, so why bluff him" and "you'll never get away with this because he is so loose". That's simply not true, and it seems like some of the posters aren't paying attention or want to flame me regardless of what I have said.

To review ... he wasn't a calling station in my experience at the table. I had seen him make several river folds. I was sure he respected my play. He was not a total maniac. He was a very loose player preflop, and extremely aggressive postflop, but he was NOT incapable of laying down a hand on the river.

I thought he *might* call me with an ace here, and that there was also a chance that might call me with a worse king, or even a queen (he might have actually been a calling station and just been forced to lay down total rags on the river). I just wasn't sure. But I *was* pretty sure I wasn't winning the pot without betting, and it was a pretty large pot that I was willing to invest one more BB in to have a (relatively) decent chance to win it if he doesn't have a piece of the scary board. I had represented a jack the whole way--why isn't this a good opportunity to bet, when he was almost certainly raising me on a draw on the turn?

~ Tilts