Re: Playing a draw against a LAG, trying to pick up bluff outs
First I'd like to point out that trying to bluff a VPIP of 70 is just flat out insane. No doubt about it. You can say all you want about "he's been folding rivers", but thats because he's seeing almost all of them, and even horrible players will fold 7high to a river bet.
What you should be paying attention too, and something I didn't see you mention once during this thread, is what would he raise the turn with? Could it be a draw? A PP? Nothing? The turn action greatly defines his holdings, and then you can HONESTLY evaluate the chances of each and whether he's capable of folding any/all of them to a river bet.
The river donk/bet, however, will never work here, even if he has A-high. Its a mentality thing, and when you let him put the last bet in on the turn, he figured that whatever he had was better than what you had, and that river card certainly didn't appear to change anything.
For this to have any chance, you must 3bet the turn and bet any river (be it for bluff of for value). Now your talking about investing 4 BB to try and bluff a player who habitually (by his numbers) HATES to fold. Its just bad poker. Stop trying too hard and force your opponents to make their biggest mistakes more often. The line you took actually encourages your opponent to play better, which should be the last thing you want.
lf
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