[elindauer]

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The pot size for unraised should be 4.5.

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Ah, thanks.

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Yes. I'm factoring future bets into the implied odds / reverse implied odds of the various draws I'm guestimating will be out against you. I concede that so far I haven't been rigorous about estimating the probability of the various draws or their EV, opting instead to just throw out estimates and hope for some help.

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I don't see how you are doing this either. You are taking the % you think we will end up winning and multiplying only by the preflop pot size as far as I can tell.

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It's not clear because I'm just hand waving at the implied odds and calling it a day, but the key is to understand that the percentage I am giving is not an estimate of the probability the AK will be good, but an estimate of the percentage of the pot this hand will capture.

See the thread in the original post of the method of calculation for more explanation of this. In that thread, AK wins 91% of the time, but captures 98% of the pot. To the extent that just throwing out numbers can be considered doing any math at all, that's exactly what I'm doing here.

Good luck.
Eric