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Old 07-27-2005, 02:31 AM
lgas lgas is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 47
Default Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches

My theory is, I think, fairly straightforward:

He is getting some decent amount of money from his deal with the Wynn, whether it's $3m or not is debatable, but whatever... anyway, he's also made quite a killing playing in the WSOP last year, the WPT this year, etc. etc. So the bottom line is he has quite a bit of cash, probably even more than we would guess if he's invested some of it well. Presumably the amount of money he is putting at risk may be a significant portion of his net worth, but would not leave him broke if he lost it.

So, basically, he can afford to do this.

Now, if he does it, due to the high variance nature of the situation, it's easy for him to come out ahead, even if he's not the best player in the majority of the games, if this doesn't happen, he can still just choose to stop at any point and take whatever loss he as accrued. Now, whether he wins or loses, he's getting a chance to play with some of the best poker players in the world at their best games. Even if he goes into each one as an underdog, there's no denying that he's a very smart and skilled player. So now you have a very smart and skilled player who's getting a chance to play the best at their best games... imagine what he can learn from this... now imagine you are already someone that can play at Daniel's level and you get this sort of experience -- what is that worth to you over the next 20 years of your career? (Or, the next 40 if he lasts as long as Brunson?)

It seems pretty obvious to me that it's quite a +EV situation he has created for himself here, all around.
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