[elindauer]

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It looks like you're using 5.5 for 3 of the calculations and 8.5 for the other. You probably want to double check this.

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I don't see it. Which calculation is off?

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It also looks like you're subtracting investments/bets of .5 and 1 sbs, how did you figure this?

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Mistake. For some reason I often mix small and big bets in my posts. That would make the final EVs:

check = 2.5 SB
raise = 2.25 SB

or actually favoring a check.


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One, you are estimating that AK wins 20% less when the pot is bigger?

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Yes, AK improved wins less in the big pot than in the small pot. I would defend this concept, although perhaps not the absolute value, by pointing out that in the big pot, more players will draw, cutting down the win rate. Also, the weak draws that come along are doing so correctly, so instead of adding to your win, they are instead taking some of the pot from you.

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Two... you are not putting in the extra bets that happen after the flop, and simply calculating from the pot at the beginning of the flop. Am I missing something?

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Yes. I'm factoring future bets into the implied odds / reverse implied odds of the various draws I'm guestimating will be out against you. I concede that so far I haven't been rigorous about estimating the probability of the various draws or their EV, opting instead to just throw out estimates and hope for some help.

-Eric