Sorry it took awhile - it was taco night at home and I'm the cook! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
I consider myself far from the math "geeks" of the forum - but, I'll give it a shot. Please correct me where I go wrong.
Here's a few pokerstoves of some hand ranges - which is where I think the biggest obstacle of this analysis lies. The difference between one and the other is the inclusion/exclusion of the 99/88 pairs. Personally, I favor the second analysis because I think those hands check-raise the turn (I also think that two pair checkraises the turn) - this is oviously up for debate.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Board: Ac Kd 9c 8h
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.6162 % 34.34% 12.27% { Ah2c }
Hand 2: 53.3838 % 41.11% 12.27% { 99-88, A9s-A2s, K8s+, Kc7c, Kc6c, QcJc, QcTc, Q9s, JcTc, 98s }</pre><hr />
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Board: Ac Kd 9c 8h
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.7879 % 39.63% 14.16% { Ah2c }
Hand 2: 46.2121 % 32.05% 14.16% { A9s-A2s, K8s+, Kc7c, Kc6c, QcJc, QcTc, Q9s, JcTc, 98s }</pre><hr />
Since we're either winning or losing 2BBs I think that this would calculate out this way:
Case #1: (.3434 * 2) - (.4111 * 2) = -.13 BB/Hand
Case #2: (39.63 * 2) - (.3205 * 2) = +.15 BB/Hand
I think the big difference here depends on what Villian's stop'n'go dictates his hand range to be. In either instance - I think it's close (assuming my claculations are correct - in which I place absolutely no stock).
I never, for the record, said that calling down from the turn is "super profitable". I do, however, think that the isolation attempt, in general, can be, and is for me, a profitable play.