Re: Totally OT: Surgery
Well, I did realy mean my medical statistics bashing in the best possible regard as far as Chris's surgery is concerned.
...And, I think that my points have at least at some point, been very sound ones. I didn't make this stuff up. As I said, it has been confirmed, repeatedly.
It has a lot to do with the counter-intuitive nature of the statistical implications themselves, and the mistakes that I speak of are often easy to fall into unsuspecting, even for a trained statistician.
The most famous example providing this result was with regards to breast cancer mommography. This example showed doctors getting it right only about 15% of the time. As I felt pretty confident my inductive logic and Phil of sci classes didn't teach me urban mythology, I did a quick google search for some sources. It was relatively easy to find quite a few. Just one quote:
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Next, suppose I told you that most doctors get the same wrong answer on this problem - usually, only around 15% of doctors get it right. ("Really? 15%? Is that a real number, or an urban legend based on an Internet poll?" It's a real number. See Casscells, Schoenberger, and Grayboys 1978; Eddy 1982; Gigerenzer and Hoffrage 1995; and many other studies. It's a surprising result which is easy to replicate, so it's been extensively replicated.)
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Again, trust me when I say that there is no offense intended, and I do not make these comments as any kind of disparagement to the medical profession. I really meant it when I said I respect it more than any other. It's just hard to get the stats correct in a field like this, and they tend to be skewed one way for a variety of reasons.
And I think that many would agree that they are in fact, skewed in the opposite way than that which is most conducive to the healing process.
Geez, I personally know so many people who made a 'miraculous recovery' of one sort or other that it gives me enough reason to doubt the unlikeliness of it all. But I suppose on that count, maybe I have just been lucky, and my sample size is too small.
Regards
Brad S
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