Re: Risk of Ruin
Just thought of something. Tvesrky and Khaneman published a lot of studies about how people, even people who know statistics, believe small sample sizes will be representative of the population. A session is a very small sample, to look for it to be representative is falling into a trap.
I am a quant at heart, but I think you need qualitative analysis in session by session situations.
Although, here is another thought: The tendancy to play worse when stuck is well known. (That is, the tendancy in the poker playing population as a whole, not necessarily in a specific individual.) One could do some interesting analysis on say win rate in the second hundred hands of a session when losing greater than or equal to some number of BB in the first 100 hands. Then an individual, after enough data are collected, could have some significant results and draw some correlations that may be helpful. But that would take a lot of work and time, and you would have to assume away any change in the individuals game (e.g. getting better at playing or avoiding tilt).
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