Re: What do you do here?
I'm going to attempt a Harrington style analysis.
What do you think his likely holdings are? I would say 2 pr., trips, and top pair. I suppose he could be bluffing, but that doesn't seem likely here.
Let's say he was bluffing 10% of the time with no pair. You will win on average maybe 90% of the time. 10%*90%=9%
Let's say he has a pair on the board, most likely top pair, about 20% of the time. You will win about 70% of the time (he has 7 outs twice). 70%*20%=14%
Let's say he has two pair 60% of the time. In that case you win about 20% of the time. (When you catch 2 of the remaining 9's, or the board pairs the card that doesn't fill him up. You have 5 outs twice) 60%*20%=12%
Let's say he has trips 10% of the time. In that case you win a little under 10% of the time. (2 outs twice) 1%
1%+12+14+9=36%
You are getting about 1.8 to 1 from the pot.(330/410+1=1.8)
Therefore, according to this analysis, it's a call by a nose, but it's so close I wouldn't fault folding.
This is assuming my analysis is not faulty. The percentages I assigned to each likely holding was based on my read of the hand and may be incorrect. Please help us if I messed up somewhere.
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