You guys are proving my point
SeaEagle, you are proving my point.
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AK will win, on average... 4.8sbs
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Ack. You are right... This makes the overall EV... 5.34 for AK.
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You've now taken several cracks at this very simple situation and come up with two different wrong answers. Not only are your answers wrong, they are WAY wrong. Not only are the WAY wrong, they are getting WORSE as you continue to "fix" your estimate.
This just shows how much more confusing your view is. It's not easy to calculate things your way. Here's how to do it, with your request that we make a J hit 10% of the time:
When KQ misses (90%), he loses 1 SB. When he hits (10%), he gains 11 SB. Therefore:
ev (KQ) = .90 (-1) + .1 (11) = .2 SB
ev (AK) = pot - ev (kq) = 3.8 SB
This is the answer. Wasn't that simple?
Good luck.
Eric
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