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Old 07-24-2005, 10:37 PM
SeaEagle SeaEagle is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 3
Default Re: How to calculate profit

Ack. You are right. I miscalculated the implied odds. I was wondering how the implied odds could be so big that they made the flop call correct (I rationalized this to myself by saying the implied odds had AK making 3 huge mistakes on the turn and river). But, in fact, on the turn KQ gives up his .6sb equity in the pot by folding 90% of the time so the implied odds needs to be 6sb*10% - .6sbs*90%, or .06sbs. i.e. KQs expected gain after the flop betting is .06sbs.

This makes the overall EV 3.6+1.8-.06 or 5.34 for AK. When you subtract the 3sbs he invested into the hand (you have to do this) his overall EV is 2.34sbs.

In other words, if I played you with this hand 100 times (and I got AK), I'd expect to profit, on average, 234sbs. If you folded to the flop bet like you should, I'd expect to make 200sbs.

Aaaand, if I just checked the flop for some reason, I'd expect to make 154sbs.

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In actuality KQ is calling incorrectly so AK's EV must be just greater than 4 and KQ's is a little less than 0.

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Right. If you want to look at it from the flop onward, then AK will make 4.34 on average and KQ will lose .34sbs.

Edit: added the check=154 number.
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