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No, our position doesn't give us many good options. In the first example, I have no idea why you think BB is going to bet for us or where AK comes from.
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We're the BB and we have Q8. I gave PFR AK and figured the action might go like this:
SB checks, BB bets, MP2 raises, field folds, BB calls.
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Oh. I get it now. As for raising AK in that spot,
that's another thread.
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In the second case, you're talking about a miracle flop.
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Yes, I know. That's why I was using it. I gave us a mediocre flop and a great flop. I assumed that everyone knows what to do with a terrible flop (c/f).
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You gave the more rare of the 'mediocre' flops. Say the flop comes Q73 or QJ4. You've got TPNK with a broadway card on board and you're OOP against a preflop raiser and two coldcallers. This is a bad situation. I think you're overestimating the range of coldcalling hands by a significant margin. Even if one is a total donk, I don't think both are -- at least one of them has a moderate-weak holding, and probably neither has total junk. It's just that moderate-weak holdings often contain queens with better kickers.
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A "couple backdoor draws" must come down perfect for you because only one of your backdoor flushes is worth drawing to and you'll often be drawing to the inside of a backdoor straight, making it less valuable.
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Correct. What I was saying is that if we get some flop cards that help us, but not by much, and we get this:
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB?
We're getting 13:1 (now that I do the math, it's probably a little less than we want but I think that we can make up 3 or 4 SBs by the river).
We can call (or fold).
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Oh good... I was thinking that you were going to suggest a raise. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Seriously, though, it's more likely 12:1 as someone folds something somewhere on the flop. That's not enough to be drawing to just a couple weak backdoor draws. Also, the backdoor straight draw (or even the gutshot straight) will often give a redraw to a better straight (always? I haven't checked all cases, so I don't know).
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As for the hand reading... I'll give you that it helps, but I don't know if it helps enough to overcome the negatives (relative position is a huge part of this since Q8o doesn't flop good drawing hands).
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Hopefully I took care of the position part above, lemme know if I'm not making sense. You're right, that Q8o doesn't flop many good drawing hands. But I think that with the "discount" and several CCers, it doesn't have to flop drawing hands (or mediocre-miracle hands like above) that often. I am not good enough at math to work it out, but intuitively I think that we're priced in.
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I don't think I buy the position part. ONce again, the thing you will want to do most often with a hand like Q8o is to protect your hand by facing the field with two bets... and that's when you've got a decent shot at having the best hand on the flop. With Q8o, even an aggressive preflop raiser will still have AQs-QTs or KQ-QJ to have you dominated fairly often. And when he doesn't have those hands, he often doesn't cooperate with your hand protection scheme.
I'd take suited junk over Q8o all day long.