[bull7]

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[/ QUOTE ] I was just wondering how you know when to increase or decrease your bet, if you are not counting?

Personally, dink I count cards and prefer a single deck. Still there is a "small" factor prevalent in gaming called LUCK, which also applies to Blackjack. When counting cards the deck can be heavily in your favor, and you can still ose. Conversely, the deck can be heavily against you and you win anyway.

Even a player employing the most basix BJ stategy should observe the number of aces used and/or left in the deck. For example, if no aces appear on the first deal, there is a greater probability possibly of a blackjack occuring on the next deal. If you count cards, or at least aces and ten point cards, you could gauge better, how probable. Of course, the dealers' chance of achieving a blackjack also increases. (Here comes that crazy LUCK factor again.) Still you can opt to play multiple hands, whereas the dealer may only play one. Also a player blackjack pays 3 to 2, a dealer BJ only even money.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, you can expect to lose more hands in BJ than you win, especially as the length of your session grows. Varying your bet is essential to winning blackjack, of course hoping to win more of the larger bets and losing more of the small ones. (simple, like the stock market: Buy low, sell high). This includes effectively opting for splitting and/or doubling down your hand at the most opportunte times, i.e. favorable cards and/or bigger bet. I could go into greater detail, but, at the risk of boring poker players, I'll stop here.

The Progression stategy you mention has many flaws, not the least of which are a) running out of money, and b) reaching the table betting limit before you can recover your losses. If that stategy was esily successful, everybody would use it and the casinos would be broke. (Although all the casinos need to is drastically lower the table limits). My last trip to Vegas yet again confirms my continued, long-held strong belief the casinos are thriving.

The 5% house edge you mention which exists employing basic stategy is not necessarily true. The true house edge varies, and depends upon many factors, such as the various BJ rules employed by the house, and the number of decks in use for the game.

I hate to lose, especially to casinos. While losing is, over the long haul, inevitablle at times, I make a sincere effort to minimize the amount and frequency of my losses. Amazingly, the wins seem to take care of themselves.