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Old 07-21-2005, 06:10 PM
bholdr bholdr is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
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Default Re: Can i get away from this

About the free card raise on third: it's a good play, but you're trying it in a terrible spot. if he does have a set, there is no way he's not gonna re-raise and bet into you on fourth, so instead of saving a small bet, you've A: cost yourself a big bet, and B: built the pot to the point where you're tied on after you make the secone best hand. you really should've folded fourth. here's a sim that shows your approximate equity vs a set and vs two pair (his only other likely holding):

vs a set:7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Qd 6d Qh 367241 73.45 132759 26.55 0 0.00 0.734
6s 7c 5d 4h 132759 26.55 367241 73.45 0 0.00 0.266

vs two pair: 7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc 6d Qh 6h 319715 63.94 180285 36.06 0 0.00 0.639
6s 7c 5d 4h 180285 36.06 319715 63.94 0 0.00 0.361

and vs JUST a pair of queens:
Qc Ad 6d Qh 264416 52.88 235584 47.12 0 0.00 0.529
6s 7c 5d 4h 235584 47.12 264416 52.88 0 0.00 0.471

Basicly, you are a dog in this pot no matter what the opponent has,and thoughyou're getting the pot odds you need for a call, you're setting yourself up to be victimized by the reverse implied odds. FOLD that mother. straight draws need multiway pots if they're dead like yours is/was.

i cannot stress enough that one should give credit for the set (ESPECIALLY since hie DIDN'T double bet) unless you have a good read or good notes to indicate otherwise, and it is hugely -EV to draw at straights and flushes against a made set on fourth.

One intresting thing that these sims don't really show is that against two pair, you'll still need to make the straight to win, but when you do, he'll have a four-outer to redraw, wheras against a set, he has a ton of redraws even if you make your hand. here's an intresting sim:

7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qc 6d Qh 252012 50.40 247988 49.60 0 0.00 0.504
7c 6c 5c 4c 247988 49.60 252012 50.40 0 0.00 0.496

even an OESFD (with no dead cards) is a slight dog to a set- the pot would justify calling until the river, though.
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