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Hand 1)...I peel one off

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What range of hands does a TAG 3-betting from the SB have?

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AA-TT (possibly 99, which I would 3-bet here), AKs, AQs, AKo seems like a place to start. Possibly more if he perceives this as a blind steal situation (this is questionable from an MP2 raise. If Hero was in CO I'd put the TAG SB on a pretty wide range of hands).

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Board: 2d 4h Jc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 22.1933 % [ 00.19 00.03 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 77.8067 % [ 00.75 00.03 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo }