[Wayfare]

I am by no means staking my poker reputation on this hand, but I think that the raise to $40 is correct for the reasons below. If I have a significant mistake in there, please tell me. Also this is assuming $100 6-max on party poker, and does not apply to live games or whatever.

The reason why I like the $40 raise instead of a push is due to several reasons. By pushing you give horrendous odds for a flush draw to call, probably so horrendous he will not call. Then you win the pot as it stands. You will also probably not get action from a high pair unless it is AQ, and even then you will probably not get a call (at least from my experience, but this is player dependent). A raise of that amount is very safe provided they do not have an overset, but it doesn’t cause any fish to make any mistakes.

By raising to $40 you can charge the flush draw $25 to see one more street. This is a 17% shot on the turn, i.e. a diamond turn that doesn’t pair the board. The rest of the time you will then push the turn and the pot will be big enough that he will likely make another mathematical mistake and call since the pot is so large. You also get KQ and AQ to come with you almost for sure since those party guys don’t lay down TPTK for that type of raise. The good news is they are drawing dead. The overlay that you get from the made hands that come along drawing dead (should) more than make up for the better odds that a flush draw has due to the third player being in the hand. The only time that you will regret the raise to $40 is if three things simultaneously happen: the turn comes an unpaired diamond, (17%), the opponent completes a flush draw (let’s say 40%), AND you don’t pair the board on the end (78% of the time the previous two statements are true).

My raise to $40 is designed to play a three way, $300 pot on the turn with one player possibly drawing dead. I have done a little scenario analysis underneath, but it is not as cut and dry as it should be.






Actions on flop:

1: Push. Your callers include: QQ and 88, AA, KK. Folders include all else. Likely result is that you will win pot at the time, which is $45

2: Call. Your action is done for round.

3: Raise to $40. People who push include QQ, 88, maybe flush draws. If flush draw pushes you will have 74% equity in the money in the middle, plus overlay of the third guy’s bet. Most likely the third guy will bow out, but since he is drawing dead to AQ/KQ etc., you want him in with these hands.


If Turn is diamond that doesn’t pair board, one or two caller: (~17%):

2: You called on the flop, you need to evaluate the action coming to you. I would strongly consider folding to a large bet here. You probably won’t get odds to redraw (22%). I like this line the least because it leaves a medium sized pot on the turn with some money left to play, and two unknown hands playing with you. You should try to get it all in on the turn.

3: You raised to $40. The pot will be $110 with one caller and $135 with two callers. You may see a push from a lone high diamond / pair combination, and you will only have ~$50 left, meaning that you will get better than 160:50 on a call. You also have 22% redraw equity. You call here.

If turn is paired board / you hit quads (~11% of time)

If you see any action on this board, then the pot will be so big and you will be so strong that it should not be hard to get all in. Trap the other players with a small bet if checked to, thus that they will not be able to fold any river. If they bet to you try to keep all three players in. Obviously if it’s heads up you can’t keep all three people in.

If turn is blank, non diamond and non paired board. (72% of the time)

This is where you make your money. If the pot is $135 and three way, you will get your money in here easily. AQ first to call your raise will have $50 back to him getting 185:50 and will say screw it and call. A diamond draw will then have 235:50 on his call provided he is last to act. Here is twodimes on a diamond draw:

pokenum -h ad kd - 2c 2h -- 2s 8d qd 3s
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 3s 2s Qd 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 7 15.91 37 84.09 0 0.00 0.159
2c 2h 37 84.09 7 15.91 0 0.00 0.841

This says he has 16% equity in that pot. His call is a small mistake, as it was on the turn. The upshot is that you probably got the third guy to come with if he had any type of hand, an opportunity that you would not have had if you had pushed the flop.