Math for the lazy:
i'm betting 635 to win 415 and i (almost surely) have ~14.5 outs for a little better than 33% equity.
0 = 415x + (1-x)((.33)(1510) - (635))
0 = 415x + (1-x)(-136.7)
136.7 = 551.7x
x = 25% or more he must fold to have the move turn a profit.
at x = 50 EV = $138
and
at x = 75 EV = $276
notice just calling the 175 yields
175/(240+175+175) = .297 or a total gain of (.33-.297)(pot) = ~$17 + 1/3(river value bet when i hit)
so which do you like better? obviously folding the turn is not allowed...
fim
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