[sam h]

I don't think its so clear cut as everybody believes. A push is quite possibly best.

Let's make a few simplying assumptions just to get a basic picture. Assume that nobody else plays, the UTG raiser has a hand range of AA-99, AKs-ATs, AK-AJ, and KQ, that UTG always calls or moves in and that the cold caller always folds.

You getting 1.4:1 and need to win 41.6% of the time to the turn. Against that hand range you are a 58.7-41.3 dog, so in that scenario its pretty damn close EV-wise!

Obviously there are assumptions here that are unlikely to hold. The cold caller might be trapping with a big pair, or somebody might wake up with a big pair behind you. On the other hand, you might have some folding equity, especially if the cold caller is not a gambling player.

Ideally, one would find a better spot. But the cost of waiting is not negligible. In six or seven hands your stack will be cut by almost 500 chips, or 16%. You just left the best two stealing positions and are unlikely to get anything premium to play with in the next couple deals. I think a gamble that is relatively even EV-wise might be your best option.