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Old 07-18-2005, 04:06 PM
Rudbaeck Rudbaeck is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 555
Default Re: Wow. Just......wow

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yes but your AA will rarely improve

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It doesn't need to improve. The other players do.


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Oh but they will. Out of 9 players, assuming 6 of them have pocket pairs and two have AK, AQ, let's give them KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88 and 67s just for the heck of it.

There are 32 unveilled cards and 5 more to come. There are no aces left in the deck. The odds of the next five cards to be all amongs the 22 that don't make a set are:

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There are 10 cards making a set in your example, not the 28 (!!!) cards you erroneously had making a set... (And another 6 cards which are dangerous only if two of them come on the board.)

Run Pokerstove, put people on a likely distribution of hands instead of arranging them so that your outs are gone but theirs aren't. You'll see that your overlay against a full table of callers in an all-in situation with aces is still somewhere from good to amazing.
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