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Old 07-18-2005, 01:59 PM
A_C_Slater A_C_Slater is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
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Default Re: WSOP - XRay Vision Winning Chances

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Even if they do hit like middle pair or something and have you beat you can make a big raise with nothing and cause them to lay down everytime.

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You can make them lay down every time? That's absurd.

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Everytime someone raised with garbage stealing you could reraise with garbage and take the pot down preflop.

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What do you do when they come back over the top of you, you're a 3-2 or maybe even 3-1 or 4-1 favorite over their hand and their reraise is a significant portion of your stack?

Either you have to put all chips on the line with a 20% or whatever chance of going broke or sacrifice a ton of chipEV. You won't be able to win the tournament by never seeing a showdown, and you're not going to be able to get opponents all in drawing dead often enough to double your stack enough times to get it from 10K to 60,000K.

3% is probably too high.

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No they won't lay down everytime, but they don't have too. They just have to lay down most of the time with their marginal holdings. Why would you get involved in a hand where someone could cripple your stack?

Don't you understand that in the begginning of the tourney you would have a huge adavantage and likely amass a big stack early?


Another example: you have 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP and open limp (very rarely should you raise as there is no need to define or "protect" your hand because you'll know where you stand on the flop, not that I open raise with 22 from MP, but you understand.) Your stack 40,000 ; SB's stack 25,000

You SEE that the SB has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the others have garbage, so you are quite sure he will raise. Folded to SB who raises to 900 (blinds 150-300) BB folds, you call.

(2100)
FLOP: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


SB bets 1000 ..... Now normally you would have to fold a scary flop like this one with your pocket deuces. You have no heart and there are 3 overcards on the straight coordinated flop. You have no chance of going bust here because you managed to amass a big stack early with your "X-ray" advantage. You call knowing you have the best hand, whereas if you couldn't see his cards you would have to fold or "make a move" but if you make a move here and raise he will fold and deny you a chance to make anymore money. You don't need to protect a hand when you always know where you stand. It's like flopping the nuts and only having to worry about being counterfeited by another nut possibility hitting.


(4100)
TURN: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


SB checks, you check.

You probably can't make anymore on this scary board against SB's ace high. But if you bet he will surely fold and you might miss out on collecting a desperation bet on the river.


(4100)
RIVER: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]



SB bets 3000 with ace high. You raise to 6000 knowing that he won't call. You don't want to have to show this hand. If they see your hand they may start to suspect you have "X-ray vision" or are psychic.


SB folds and you collect a 7100 pot in a hand you would normally fold on the flop.


If an Ace, Ten, or King hit anywhere you would just fold, but players will miss the flop with their holdings more than they will hit and you will make mad money.
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