You can't just say "You're adding outs." because you're also adding non-outs. I'd give you partial credit for getting the right answer, but your work isn't correct. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Ken, you're definitely not allowed to say "Assume there's one card in each 5th of the deck."
Here's how I thought about it. In MethodA, the cards are all distinct. In MethodB, the cards can either be all distinct, or Francine can get a repeated card.<ul type="square">[*]In the distinct case, she loses 1/(X+1) of the time. (Where X = number of opponents.)[*]In the repeated case, she loses 1/2X of the time. 1/X to tie with the lowest, 1/2 to lose the coinflip.[/list]MethodB is a weighted average of 1/(X+1) and 1/2X, so she loses less often in MethodB.
-Sam