Re: Some math that\'s supposed to help me figure out SNGs
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If you need 3 3rd place finishes to make up for one heads up finish, you'd be willing to call with a hand that's a 3-1 dog, because you're getting an overlay.
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This is where you're going wrong, you don't need 3 3rd places to make up for one heads up. What you did wrong is you used expected profit in your calculations rather than expected payout. The $22 you invested is no longer yours, it's part of the prize pool. Using the payouts, you get E(3rd) = $40, E(HU) = ($100 + $60) * 0.5 = $80. So E(HU) = 2 * E(3rd). So 2 3rd places equates to 1 Heads Up, therefore you need to be even odds to make a call a break even play, as you'd expect.
In reality, due to the overlay of the blinds, it should be correct, by ICM, to call here as slightly less than 50%. I'm not sure why this doesn't quite fit with your calculations.
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