[pergesu]

Okay so Bones and I have been talking about that 77 ITM hand I posted a little while ago. Here is a hypothetical situation that we're using to try and figure it out.

You: 2000
SB: 2000
Button: 4000

Blinds 100/200


SB shows AKo and pushes. You look down and see 77. ICM says a call here is correct (+1.3%).

The main reason the call is correct because of the payout weights.

So here's what we were thinking. In a $22 SNG, your profit for finishing 3rd will be $18. Winning this hand will give you a 50% chance of winning the tourney, ignoring difference in skill level. So when you go heads up, you have a profit EV of $58 ((78 + 38) * .5).

45% of the time you make $18, and 55% of the time you make $58.

58/18 = 3.22, so you need to finish 3rd place a little more than 3 times to equal the profit you gain from getting heads up once.

So that means to me that you only need to be 1-3.22 or better to win the hand, because getting heads up gives you the same expected profit as three third place finishes. So you ought to only need a hand that wins ~24% of the time to make the call.

That would be a massive range, but in fact you need 22+,AKs to make this call profitable. That's a range that wins 57% of the time, only 6% of hands.

I have to be looking at this all wrong, simply because SNGPT is slapping me around. I'd really appreciate it if someone could tell me what I'm missing, cause I think whatever it is may be the next big step towards me understanding SNGs.