[samr]

ICM calculation follows. Assume BB folds.

Fold, next hand stacks are:
Hero t500, on the button
BB t2700, in the SB
Button/UTG t6800, in the BB.
ICM = 0.2275

Call, win main pot:
Hero t2500
BB t2700
Button/UTG t4800
ICM = 0.3073

Call, lose:
ICM = 0

If you expect to win 2/3 times,
ICMev = 2/3*0.3073 + 1/3*0 = 0.2049

If you fold: ICMev = 0.2275
If you call: ICMev = 0.2049

ICM says it's a fold. It doesn't take into account the blinds, your position, and the probability that you get 3rd. With that in mind, I call and hope to triple up.


-- Edit:

Break even point:
0.2275 = x*0.3073 + (1 - x)*0
0.2275 = x*0.3073
x = 74%.

The break even point is when you expect to win the main pot 74% of the time.