Re: Keeping it simple
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This is occam's Razor; the simpler of the two explanations is usually correct
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The key thing to remember here (as applied to poker) is that usually part. In poker, you shouldn't pick one thing and decide its true, but should find a range of possibilities and associate a probability with each one. Occam's razor can help decide which explanation is most likely, but you shouldn't ignore the other possibilities either.
A good example is when your opponent checks to you on the river. The simplest explanation is that he is weak and doesn't want to bet into you. The more complicated explanation is that he is trying to check-raise. For most opponents, he is more likely to be weak, but even if there is a 25% chance that he's going for a check-raise, you still have to consider the possibility.
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