Re: Sure enough to fold?
I think your reasoning for a turn raise is flawed. I would often raise the turn here almost automatically, but I think it's not a great idea here.
The donk-bet, particularly at the lower ends of the SS ladder, may simply be a straight up indication of two pair. You may well be behind here. Not that you certainly shouldn't call down; folding would be bad. I think you simply need to reevaluate what you are going to do with the hand.
1. Your hand is not that vulnerable to draws. Most opponents will be drawing to 5 outs or less. You'd like to protect your hand but I don't think it is the most important factor in this decision.
2. You may have more outs than you figure. If your opponent made a junk two pair (not aces up) you have lots of counterfeit outs.
3. I think you are overthinking your reads in relation to the player behind you. You've described one possibility for what he's doing. But in SS, you must realize he could be doing something that doesn't make any sense. Save the level 3 thinking for clearer situations and more familiar players.
4. The LP players overcall may be a decent thing here. Overcall reasoning (namely, you'd rather get LP's big bet by calling than get SBs big bet by raising and opening up to a three-bet) may apply here. Since his outs might be pretty thin I would lean toward letting him come in behind.
5. Assuming no raise from LP, you can see a showdown for the same price as the raise here, and you don't run the risk of having to make a tough turn fold.
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