Re: top 3
I think field size is more important than buy in for determining variation.
If the field is 30-70 players, then an average player will make the final table 15-30% of the time. The money is still only in the top 3 spots but its more like 10-20X buy-ins for 1st rather than 100-200X.
I think most good players can lower their variation by playing smaller fields for larger buyins.
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