[mindflayer]

Occam's Razor.

This is occam's Razor; the simpler of the two explanations is usually correct, BUT in poker your opponent knows this and can calculate the correct bluffing frequency then you can NOT use the Razor to solve your problems.

In Jodi Foster's movie.. Contact,
they find information to create a space/time travel ship
In foster's mind she goes on an elaborate trip, but to everyone else watching she goes no where ..
the simple answer?? nothing happened and it doesnt work.

guessing why a kid who does not come to school one day..

a) had a cold.. stayed home
b) abducted by aliens experimented on.. broke free.. defeated aliens, saved the universe, learned the secret of intergalatic space travel.. travelled back to earth.

I would go with a)

in poker the razor could be applied to when a player checks/bets/or raises

lets take a raise on the river for example

a) has a hand
b) is bluffing

a) is the more simple explanation, BUT if the player can calculate correct bluffing frequency then a) and b) are in proportion to the pot size/the amount he has to bet/ and your folding frequency.

so If your opponent is a good player, then the EV of both hands are the same (or as close as he can guess, because he has to guess your folding frequency). even though the probability he has a hand is MUCH higher say 9:1.. he has to make you fold roughly 1 in 10 hands to make the bluff worthwhile.