[bobman0330]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks good on paper, doesnt it? And it is a surface analysis. Go deeper.

(I'm answering within the question structure posed by the thread.) I'm choosing to depict 3 quality draws and show why it's OK to fold aces in this scenario.

Each hand ALONE is a big dog to aces. BUT: each of these probabilities must be added to see what you are really facing. The sum of each hand's percentages represents the percentage chance that at least one hand in this field of 3 draws will be successful in beating you. The aces are not up against a single hand; they are up against 3 hands that form one composite opponent. Is there any other way to look at it?

The fact one of the draws contains one of your outs (an Ace) makes this worse than it needs to be to certainly be OK folding. In truth 3 or more quality draws without an ace is probably enough to consider folding.

The total is 40.82 (the 3 draws) vs. 58.25 (the aces).

To quote Sklansky, THeory of Poker, page 225:

..."when the FAVORED play has VERY BAD consequences when it is wrong, and the less-favored play has only slightly bad consequences when it is wrong, IT MAY BE CORRECT to choose the less-favored play."

Fold and lose whatever is in the pot from yuou so far. Avoid this near-coin flip and seek a better spot.

One exception would be the drama motivation for playing. If you seek drama, by all means get all your money in.

If you want to leave a (consistent) winner, seek 2:1 favorite situations and try to actively avoid anything less.

Typical games populated with typical opponents provide a many, MANY opportunities to get in all your money a 2:1 favorite.

I encourage much more discussion of this specific scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the craziest thing i've ever heard. I mean, i feel like this is a put-up job.

First of all, it doesn't matter how many opportunities I'll have to put my money in as a 2-1 favorite. I'm going to do all those, plus this one. (Plus a bunch of other close gambles that would no doubt make you very sad. I might even raise many limpers with KQs in a limit game!)

Second, this edge is much bigger than a 2-1 edge. You put in, say, $100 to win $300 almost 60% of the time. For those of you keeping track, that means you win about $140 dollars on this play... I mean, damn. Compare the EV of having only the SB call, flop comes AA2, SB pushes with 72 and you call. Your EV = $100, barely 2/3 as good as the all-in scenario.

Thirdly, having AJ in there is a huge boost for you, as it is more or less dead money. (AJ more than many other aces, since Js are already good for the T9)

Fourthly, Sklansky should punch you for perverting ToP in that way.
CORRECT APPLICATION:
Probable outcome wins a small amount
Unlikely outcome loses a ton... fold
INCORRECT APPLICATION:
Probable outcome wins a TON
Unlikely outcome loses a small amount... fold

Fifthly, like so many things described by the term "coin-flip." 58-42 is not a coinflip. Good baseball teams generally win about 58% of their games. It's a BIG EDGE.

Sixthly, I bet you're actually a winning player, but it's only because Foxwoods games are SO SOFT.