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I thought this question was put to rest 15 years ago by Marilyn Vos Savant -- google "Marilyn Vos Savant 3 door problem", or look at
http://barryispuzzled.com/zmonty.htm
What WAS interesting is that several professors of mathematics at leading universities disagreed with her, and publicly stated so (after politely being advised not to), the pissing contest was raised to a level where Marilyn posted their letters WITH names and affiliation. MIT finally stepped in and confirmed Marilyns calculations.
SheetWise
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It stuns me that people doubted her. Years ago when I first ran into this problem I didn't want to believe that switching was optimal. Simulations weren't good enough, because I wanted to understand why it worked.
I made a little diagram of the possible outcomes, and it became obvious in minutes what the truth was.
This coming from a guy who almost failed his senior math class in high school. This statement is misleading, because the only reason I got poor marks was because I didn't turn in any homework, but it makes my point seem cooler so I'm leaving it in.