[Spladle Master]

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Here are my thoughts regarding the call preflop, pot 100% of flop line with 22 vs call preflop, pot 100% of flop with any 2.

The strategy relies on playing your opponent's hand and him not hitting the flop.

So we all know that for a non pocket pair, the chances of pairing on the flop is 1/3 of the time. Assuming that our opponent folds the flop when he doesnt pair, we'll take it down on our flop bet 2/3 of the time.

But this isn't really true. there are times that opponent flops a draw and calls us. I belive this is balanced out with the times that opponent pairs the lower of his 2 cards and makes 2nd or 3rd pair and he folds to a flop bet.

So right away we see that the strategy of call preflop, autobet the flop works better if villain does not raise preflop with drawing hands such as suited connectors, suited 1 gappers. It works even better if we know that villain is capable of this steal with AXo, KXo, any 2.

But the trouble is, if we are able to make this work with 22, why aren't you able to make it work with any 2? since you are playing villains hand anyways.

The reason is that if you start doing this with any 2 everytime, villain will obviously catch on and thus alter his strategy (calling the flop with nothing, raising the flop with nothing, etc....). Therefore, you can only do this strategy a certain percentage of the time as determined by game theory. Since you are only doing this a certain percentage of the time, I would rather have 22 than say J4, as I at least have a redraw to a set and thus another way to win.

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Good post.