[ddubois]

What do you consider a "drawy" board? The flop is basically 2 cards, as far as draws are concerned. Granted, they are connected, but that's still only a straight draw for JT and 67, plus some gutshots: QT, QJ (unlikely, because I have two queens). And I don't consider T7,56,57 likely enough to be worth mentioning. Or do you mean it's drawy because my (sole) opponent could have picked up a flush draw on the turn?

I'm not ready to disagree with you both regarding the turn check, but I'm curious what range of hands you think he can have and how likely they are.

Kinds of hands:
1) Backdoor flush draw and OESD
Clearly it's a mistake to fail to bet when he will 100% of the time call as a 4:1 dog.
2) PPs lower than Qs
These people might not always call now that the ace hit, but they will much more likely pay off the river after a turn check. Letting people draw for free to a 2 outter is not a big deal.
3) Nine
With the 8s on the board, I'm protected from any 9 (other than K9) hitting it's kicker, so they too are drawing to 2 outs.
4) King-X
3 outs.
5) Gutshot
4 outs
6) Some utter garbage
He'd fold anyway.
7) Eight
He was waiting until the turn to check raise.
8) Ace
He sucked out and will probably check-raise.

With 1-6, there's an improved chance he'll bet the river, with hands he'd fold on the turn, or check-fold the river.

So how likely are each of these?

I believe I once read on this forum some good player (Nate? StellarWind?) saying something like: "letting an opponent draw heads up to a small number of outs for free is not a disaster, if it lets us avoid folding the winner". The vast majority of his holdings possible hands are drawing slim (2-4 outs), or are crushing me. And that ace is a scare card in two ways: 1) if me opponent is calling with one or two overcards, that's the one he will have most often, 2) it's a great card for a LAG to bluff check-raise.

So convince me betting this turn is that much better than checking.